Super Bowl LIV in numbers
Amelco trading analytics manager Bob Craddock on what operators can learn from the Super Bowl's key betting behaviors
With an audience of one hundred million, America’s biggest sporting event certainly attracts its fair share of viewers. The numbers speak for themselves; the most watched Super Bowl in history was the 2015 clash between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks, which drew a viewership of 114.4 million, with this year’s viewing numbers of more than 100 million not falling far shy.
In fact, these estimates are highly conservative. The numbers only include households, failing to account for the crowds of people who watch the big game at bars, restaurants and sports zones in casinos. Throw ever-popular Super Bowl house parties into the mix too and it becomes apparent that almost everyone in the US tunes in. Clearly, the financial potential for betting as regulated states come online is practically infinite.
Indeed, since New Jersey’s Supreme Court victory opened the door for states to legalize sports betting, companies have scrambled to stake their claim in what could well become the world’s most lucrative market. And as the country’s most watched sporting event, the Super Bowl may be its pinnacle.
Sure enough, Amelco saw a strong uplift in US football betting during the Super Bowl, but the increase was actually lower than that observed in European markets. We experienced a 500% uptick in US betting during the Super Bowl compared to an average primetime Regular Season game, while in non-US markets the figure was 1,000%.
Attention grabber
The sport is so high-profile in US markets that it enjoys year-round attention. Recreational punters in other parts of the world, though, only tend to get involved closer to the big event.
Regardless of regional differences, it’s clear that, from the perspective of anyone involved in sports betting, the potential of the Super Bowl is virtually unlimited. We saw a bets-per-minute peak nearly three and a half times what we saw during the regular season. Bettors also bet bigger – the average stake for a Super Bowl bet was almost double what we are used to seeing.
We also saw a much higher percentage of bets and stakes on the Money Line, particularly in the US where the spread is typically around four times as popular with bettors. This was mainly due to the fact that the betting on this year’s match was particularly close, with the game itself following suit with the Kansas City Chiefs narrowly emerging victorious against the San Francisco 49ers in an exhilarating final quarter comeback.
Although bettors may favor exotic markets, the money is always going to stay on the big three – nearly 80% of bets taken on the game were on markets other than the Money Line, Spread and Total Points but this equated to only 45% of the stakes. This is expected as small stakes customers like to find big prices on markets such as first TD Scorer in order to make big profits from small outlays.
Although the Super Bowl is undoubtedly one of the biggest events in the sports betting calendar, Amelco sees one particularly exciting growth area: in-game markets. The Super Bowl has more pre-game action than most fixtures as it’s the only thing on punters’ minds for two weeks.
In non-US territories we often see it outweigh pre-game, and although in-game figures were down to 25% of total international bets for the big fixture and 15% in the US, this number is only set to grow in the future as in-game betting becomes more widespread. The options available for bettors are set to increase significantly as more operators offer more markets more often. As states continue to come online, we’re going to see an increasingly diverse range of betting habits coming to the forefront.
Bob Craddock is Amelco’s trading analytics manager and oversees the development of the company’s machine learning sports models along with business intelligence and analytics. Having worked in the industry for over 15 years, he has previously held roles at UK bookmakers William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral.