Election contract markets boom as Trump becomes president-elect
Platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood attract huge influx of users as Donald Trump defeats Kamala Harris after taking key swing states
Image credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr CC BY 2.0
Donald Trump will return to the White House in January after a historic victory in the US presidential election, with the race having gripped the attention of betting markets across the world.
At the time of writing, the Republican has surpassed the 270 electoral college votes needed to become president — currently at 292 — leaving his Democratic contender Kamala Harris far behind on 224.
Four states — Nevada, Arizona, Alaska and Maine — have yet to declare their results.
The polls had barely been able to separate the two candidates in recent weeks. However, the divisive former president was able to take the key swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
And while legal sportsbooks have been unable to offer markets on the election, that has not stopped election betting from rising to the fore in the country.
Polymarket rushed into the public consciousness, with more than $3.6bn reportedly traded on the crypto platform, though some have refuted these claims.
According to Fortune magazine, some crypto research firms have identified wash trading on the Polymarket platform, calling into question the legitimacy of the total matched figure.
A French high roller, who was reported to have held more than 40% of the contracts for Trump to win the popular vote, has made headlines, while Bloomberg reported Polymarket paid influencers more than $50,000 to promote the platform.
— Vlad Tenev (@vladtenev) November 6, 2024
Kalshi also made headlines in its battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a US district court gave it the green light to offer election contracts at the start of October.
At the time of writing, more than $412m has been traded on who will win the presidential election.
As recently as November 3, Harris had overtaken Trump on the Kalshi election market by a slight edge, before falling away.
As the polls failed to separate the candidates, many had taken to using election contract markets as a more definite indicator of the national mood.
Liberty Vittert, professor of data science at Washington University in St Louis, Missouri, described such a method as a “load of hooey.”
Last week, Robinhood also joined the party with the launch of its US election contracts, with CEO Vladimir Tenev claiming the product was launched in less than 30 days from conception.
Yesterday, as Americans cast their ballots, Tenev took to X to reveal that more than 400 million contracts had been traded since the product’s launch.
Over in the UK, more than £251m ($323.3m) has been matched on the Betfair Exchange’s political betting market for the US presidential election winner.
The market is still open, with nearly £300,000 currently trying to back Trump at 1.01. Almost £1.6m has been matched so far at that price, the lowest-possible odds on Betfair.
The total matched on the market was down against £480m in the run-up to the 2020 US presidential election between Trump and Joe Biden, the incumbent president, with £131m matched in the final 24 hours.
However, legal battles rumbled on for weeks, with Trump refusing to accept the outcome, and in the end a staggering £2bn was traded on the election by the time Betfair closed the market.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “There’s absolutely no question this market has been anything but straightforward. It has been an unprecedented race to the White House that has seen the lead in the betting change eight times since August.
“However, customers were clear on Donald Trump winning a second term on October 10, almost a month ago, and their support for the next president of the United States didn’t really waiver in that time, apart from a slight drift over the weekend.”
He added: “A full post-mortem for Kamala Harris’ campaign will take place, but the initial diagnosis looks to be President Biden stepping down and giving her just 107 days to move the dial on key issues that are the thorn in the sides of millions of Americans across the country.
“There were times when the market favored Harris, but the momentum never stuck for her, and ultimately punters weren’t confident enough in her to make her the favorite going into it.
“The only time in Betfair Exchange US election history when a favourite as the polls closed has lost was back in 2016, and that’s now a record that will continue to stand.”
Away from the presidential election, Missourians approved the legalization of online sports betting by a narrow margin.
The result means the Show-Me State will allow mobile and retail sportsbooks to launch in the state by December 2025 at the latest.
Missouri also becomes the 39th US state to approve legal sports betting and the 31st to allow mobile sports betting. It is also the only state to wave through sports betting in 2024.