Level playing field: Will bettors relish the return of the behind-closed-doors Premier League?

When the Premier League announced the resumption of all fixtures starting from 17 June, a mixture of cautious excitement and relief was met by all of those connected to the sports betting industry. There’s no doubt the last few months have been challenging for all involved, but now we can finally look forward to the return of one of the most popular forms of sports betting.

With horseracing, greyhounds, tennis and snooker all making a return to the fold too, the next few months promises to be an interesting period for operators and bettors alike. Yet, the circumstances in which these popular sports are allowed to resume poses more questions than answers.

How will empty stadiums impact games? What will traders need to look out for? And will we really see activity return to normal levels?

Where’s your famous atmosphere?

The famous roars from the Kop, Stretford End and North Bank have influenced key moments of Premier League matches over the years, but with fans unable to enter stadiums it’s likely to impact those out on the field, as well as the final results. The twelfth man has been shown a red card.

From a trading perspective, that will create issues given that home advantage will hold less importance in this new way of holding Premier League matches. Betting has evolved over the years with algorithms holding variables that help with pricing, but in effect that’s all out of the window for the time being.

It will be fascinating to see how certain players will adapt to their new surroundings. Mental strength plays such an important role in sport and intense atmospheres can either reinvigorate performances or lead to mistakes. Some players will struggle to step up their usual levels with no crowds, while others may enjoy the “training ground” feel to these games. While sports such as tennis and snooker are usually played out in quieter environments, the lack of people in attendance is sure to have an impact on their performance too.

The empty stadiums are sure to change the mindset of referees as well. We’re likely to see them be less strict and keep games flowing and be more generous, given their decision making won’t be as heavily scrutinised by a loud fan base.

The lack of solid information available to traders is a challenge too. While pre-season training usually gives us access to info on new signings and performances from friendlies, it’s largely unknown how players have kept up their fitness levels during lockdown.

A change in betting behaviour

Given the unfamiliar set up of these sporting events, it’s safe to say that betting behaviour will change slightly. Heading into the unknown levels the playing field somewhat, and many bettors will be looking to take advantage as traders become more accustomed to this new environment.

Both sides of the fence will have to sharpen their tools and understand quickly how the new measures imposed have impacted games and preparation.

In-play markets will hold huge significance, given that all games will be televised live. Traders will be more cautious during the early rounds as a result. We’re expecting punters to gravitate towards goal markets, rather than predicting how many cards will be given out. Of course, recreational bettors will be out in force, looking for BetBuilder products to add even more excitement to the long-awaited return of top-flight football.

Pent-up demand

With new measures in place to ensure a safe return of live sports, some have questioned whether betting activity can return to similar levels as before.

However, it’s evident that there’s pent-up demand from all kinds of bettors for a return of quality sporting events. In Australia, where horseracing has continued behind closed doors, we’ve seen a huge surge of betting activity on races. In the UK, the average number of bets taken per minute through the OpenBet platform for this year’s Virtual Grand National were at a similar level to 2018’s real event.

Watching sporting events without crowds will take some getting used to at first, but there’s no doubt betting activity will increase. It’s a form of entertainment that many have gone without for several months now, and platforms will need to cope with the demand as bettors scour the latest in-play markets across the Premier League, as well as engage with other sports.

It will be intriguing to see how the next few months unfold. What we can categorically say is that the return of sport is a much-welcomed boost for all sportsbooks which have endured a challenging period of late. Now’s the time to embrace this new opportunity and give bettors exactly what they’re after – unmissable experiences.

As senior vice president sportsbook and platform at SG Digital, Keith O’Loughlin is responsible for the sports betting division that powers market-leading sportsbooks across the globe including GVC, Sky Bet, Caesars Entertainment, New Zealand Racing Board and Danske Spil among others.