Five betting industry predictions for the World Cup

The World Cup is the greatest show on Earth for football fans, bettors and betting operators.

There’s quite simply nothing like it for the global betting market, with companies knowing that this huge international football tournament can make or break their year.

As football supporters put up their wallcharts and punters begin to look at their betting options for Russia versus Saudi Arabia and the other opening games, we can also make a few predictions about how this tournament will pan out for the industry.

So, whether you think it will be Brazil, Spain or maybe England who will be lifting the FIFA World Cup trophy come July 15, I’m sticking by these forecasts for how Russia 2018 will pan out for the industry…

It will be the biggest mobile betting event ever

Okay, so this is like betting that Spain will beat Iran or Brazil will qualify for the second round, but let’s dig a little deeper. Of course, betting markets grow year on year, with breadth of offer also increasing. On top of that Russia 2018 will see very favourable kick-off times for the big European markets, unlike Brazil 2014 where some games began at 11pm UK time.

While we’re at it, I’ll also make a bet right now that 2022 will be even bigger!

Create Your Own Bet will be king

This is the Harry Kane of the betting market. Create Your Own Bet didn’t exist four years ago but is set to be massive at Russia 2018. This is the major development since the last World Cup in 2014 and will impact mobile revenue.

The betting industry is increasingly uniform in terms of standard prices, so it’s the operators with something a little unique who are most likely to succeed.

VAR will cause problems

There’s so many questions about the new VAR (video assistant referee) system, that was used in major competitions such as the FA Cup, Bundesliga and Serie A last season and will be deployed in Russia. How will VAR impact the World Cup? What will be the implications for the TV audience, and therefore potential betting and in-play markets?

Will we have another example of the farcical Pablo de Blasis moment in Germany this season? The referee had blown for half-time in the game between Mainz and Freiburg but received advice that a penalty should have been awarded. The players were ordered back on to the pitch and De Blasis struck home from the spot.

Across Germany and Italy this season after VAR was introduced, there was a drop in both leagues in goals, penalties and red cards. But will that data from a few hundred top-level games be enough for bookmakers and their algorithms to get it right? Maybe the drops were just an anomaly and won’t be duplicated in Russia?

VAR has caused problems in betting markets. Some people have been able to exploit operators who have been slow to react, and some firms haven’t quite integrated the incident feed correctly. This has resulted in exploitable opportunities.

It’s fair to say VAR has been one of the biggest challenges to football betting in recent years and has had an impact on the in-play product.

Double jeopardy trouble

This is the first World Cup since the ‘double jeopardy’ rule was agreed in 2016. The law changed so that players committing accidental fouls, that deny a goal-scoring opportunity, are not now automatically sent off, but cautioned instead.

The impact on red cards across the globe has been manifest, with the number of sending offs having plummeted across all leagues. However, the spread firms pitched them at an opening quote of 9-10. A 9.5 midpoint looks like a slight overreaction based on domestic historical trends and a cheap buy at 10. It’s no surprise to see them now at 10.5 – 11.5, although it was always a difficult opening pitch, and the size of the spread is a little aggressive.

It’s only 64 games

Finally, punters and traders should remember that unlike the domestic football season, where we have thousands of matches to exploit and we possess stronger data, the World Cup is only 64 games.

Sixty four games are a tiny sample of football. As smart investors we should beat the price, but the lords of variance will still hold a strong hand in deciding whether we win or lose.

I’d suggest sticking to the same plan employed for the other nine months of the football season. Whilst the uniformity of the market means if it’s wrong everyone is initially wrong, it doesn’t hold that the results will reflect the implied probability.

Finally, a tip. I concentrate on Top Team Goalscorer markets, these are less efficient as they are based on individual traders’ opinions, where expected playing time for players in the weaker teams is as important as the player’s goal-scoring abilities.

Of those that remain, I’d suggest Moussa Konate at 17 or 15.0 for Senegal looks interesting, with a saviour on Moussa Sow.