Bettor behaviour data crunching in the run up to the World Cup

We’re a mere three short months away from one of sport’s biggest events, the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. It falls right in the middle of the football season and the largest peak time for retail advertising.

The burning question on advertisers’ lips right now is how this season will impact consumer behaviour for what is typically peak interest for betting intent? We’ve worked with our analytics team to analyse key data to help the industry cut through this additional competition for consumer attention. So, what should betting companies be doing to plan their World Cup marketing campaigns? Here are the five most common questions, with our answers based on Google data.

Q: Football has proliferated since the pandemic. Are fans getting football fatigue, and if so, will this impact interest and therefore betting intent?

A: Following a 31-day break in 2018 between the end of the Premier League season and the start of the World Cup in Russia, we saw a greater than 18% jump in sports betting queries for the start of the tournament. Contrast that with Euro 2020, which had an 18-day gap owing to the impact of the pandemic, and we saw only a 7% jump in queries. Advertisers wanting to take advantage of the seven-day break between the first-ever pausing of the Premier League and the World Cup 2022 should plan for an ‘always on’ approach. This will account for the expected smaller spike in sports betting demand at the start of the tournament.

Q: Does betting intent increase when England play?

A: Yes, the data tells us that during an England match betting demand jumps 20% versus a typical game. There is a 30% increase in generic queries for England versus non-England games. While intent is important, the data also reveals higher engagement rates. Click-through rates for an England game have been on average 1.25 times better than a non-England one over the last two tournaments.

Q: How does the bettor profile fluctuate?

A: This jump in generic demand and engagement for big tournaments, particularly when England play, is driven by a shift in the bettor profile mix. Suddenly there’s a new profile in play: the ‘big moment only’ football fans have arrived, and they are betting for the first time. Of this profile, only 25% actually watch the big moments. Sports betting advertisers should address this cohort differently, using their creative team and the big moments to make the right offer.

Q: When does betting intent peak during a major tournament?

A: During the 2018 World Cup, betting demand accelerated as England progressed through the group stages. We saw tournament lows for the final group games and then a peak during the England versus Croatia semi-final, followed by, unsurprisingly, a big drop in bet intent after England lost the match.

Q: What happens after the game?

A: A recent trend has emerged right after the full-time whistle, which makes for a unique opportunity for sports betting advertisers to be reactive with their creative in a less competitive space. Here are our takeaway points to consider:

1.In the knockout rounds, as soon as the next match is confirmed, there is a huge jump in demand for the next match ‘odds’ markets.
2.Queries spike for ‘how betting odds work’, indicating the new bettor profile is ready and FOMO sets in.
3.Euro 2020 saw a strong correlation between sports betting and casino.

Chris Harrison is Google’s gambling lead. He is responsible for the commercial gambling business and leads a team of execs supporting some of the largest operators and affiliates in the industry. Prior to joining Google, Harrison spent eight years working for Betfair in various digital, strategy and marketing roles.