Weekend Review: Kop shock as Liverpool falter against Forest

Liverpool (1/4) stumbled to a first defeat of the Premier League season after Nottingham Forest (11/1) sprung a surprise in the form of a 1-0 win away at Anfield to give the bookies a boost following the international break.

A late strike from Callum Hudson-Odoi was enough to separate the two teams and leave Arne Slot’s side sitting third in the table after four games played.

The result could mean an early dent in the Red’s title charge, with Liverpool now three points adrift of reigning champions Manchester City.

A first loss of the Slot era was a positive for the bookmakers, with Steve Freeth of bet365 outlining how the Saturday afternoon fixtures, which included a 3-0 away victory for Manchester United (4/5) at Southampton (3/1), served the operator in good stead.

Freeth also touched on Brighton’s 0-0 draw against Ipswich, as well as Sunderland and Middlesbrough dropping points.

He explained: “By 5:30pm on Saturday we were sitting pretty having recovered from the early Super Boost of Manchester United scoring the first goal (1/2 – Evs) having seen Southampton miss a penalty at 0-0, to preparing ourselves for our best day of the season so far.

“ coupon buster after coupon buster in the form of 1/4 Liverpool, 4/9 Brighton, 13/20 Sunderland and 8/15 Middlesbrough, plus 4/9 Leipzig’s 0-0 with Union Berlin knocking out all of the Bundesliga accumulators.”

Defeat at Anfield. #LIVNFO pic.twitter.com/sZfIUDCvu4

— Liverpool FC (@LFC) September 14, 2024

Another Everton (5/1) capitulation that saw the Toffees go from leading 2-0 to losing 3-2 at Aston Villa (1/2) cost bet365, as Freeth remarked: “Let’s not forget Everton throwing away another two-goal lead as we paid out on the 17/4 Toffees as well as 4/6 Aston Villa in singles, multiples and bet builders thanks to our two goals ahead early payout offer.”

Kindred Group’s Ali Gill echoed a similar sentiment when it came to the best result of the weekend, citing Liverpool’s slip up as a gift for the bookmakers.

“Just about a good weekend in the Premier League, largely due to a helping hand from Liverpool as Arne Slot had his first stutter, that game coming in comfortably our best overall result of the weekend,” Gill said. 

“With most other big favourites winning, it was a big help in the acca market too were unsurprisingly they were very well backed.”

Sunday’s main event saw Arsenal (8/5) secure North London bragging rights as they toppled local rivals Tottenham (17/10) with a hard-fought 1-0 victory.

Reigning victorious on derby day 🤩 pic.twitter.com/8jA04cHSaV

— Arsenal (@Arsenal) September 15, 2024

A second-half header from Gabriel Magalhães proved to be decisive and hand the Gunners their third successive win at the home of their most fierce enemies.

Freeth reflected on the result, adding: “No hard luck stories on Sunday in what was a quieter day. 

“Arsenal’s visit to rivals Tottenham was a real test of their title credentials, with the Gunners drifting from odds-on to going off at 8/5 in their 1-0 victory in a game which was almost perfect for bet builders – we’d have preferred fewer cards.”

Kindred’s Gill said: “The North London Derby topped the turnover chart, but all told it was close enough to a draw there between layers and punters as 1-0, with a centre back scoring, it didn’t catch a whole lot of lines or markets outside the 1X2.”

The final Premier League game of the weekend saw Newcastle (9/10) get the better of Wolves (3/1) with a 2-1 triumph, in what Gill dubbed as Kindred’s “worst single result of the Premier League match round”.

Betfred’s Alan Firkins also assessed a thrilling weekend of Premier League action, and drew a similar conclusion as he commented: “Positive vibes for the footie desk on Saturday with several favourable results such as Liverpool’s shock loss at home to Forest, and Brighton being held at home by Ipswich. 

“However, plenty of the profit was given back yesterday after the late Newcastle comeback, away at Wolves.”

Betway’s Mike Reading added: “The biggest game in the Premier League for us was, of course, the North London Derby, where pre-match betting saw twice as much money staked on Arsenal compared to Spurs.

“Despite Gabriel’s winning header securing three points for The Gunners, the low-scoring match meant we ended up breaking even.

“The shock win by Nottingham Forest at Anfield, their first victory at Liverpool in any competition since 1969, was an excellent result for us and ended many punters’ weekend accumulators.”

And the machine that is Manchester City continues to push ahead, with an Erling Haaland brace turning around a 1-0 deficit at home to Brentford.

Jake Ashton, OLBG sports betting expert, said: “Erling Haaland’s record-breaking start to the season has already seen his odds tumble from 9/1 into 2/1 favourite to win the PFA Player of the Year award.

“Haaland sits ahead of City teammate Kevin De Bruyne (13/2) at the top of the betting market for the prestigious award.”

It wasn’t plain sailing on the continent either after a number of favourites recorded convincing victories as Real Madrid (8/11), Bayern Munich (1/5), Benfica (1/4) and AZ Alkmaar (4/11) all cruised to comfortable wins.

Harry Kane even notched a hat-trick (15/2) for German giants Bayern during their dominant 6-1 win away at Holstein Kiel.

Gill added: “In Europe, Real Madrid’s comfortable 2-0 win over Real Sociedad was our worst result of the weekend, with Barcelona’s 4-1 win over Girona not a million miles behind. However, Inter being held to a 1-1 draw with Monza in Serie A was a great result for the book.”

Freeth said: “By 10pm we’d given it all back to end up flat on the day as some heavyweights in their respective divisions posted convincing wins all over Europe.”

Reading noted: “Over in Spain, it was a different story, as comfortable wins for Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Atlético left us significantly down in La Liga. In Italy, we ended the weekend in a better position as most of the top Italian sides, bar Milan and Napoli, dropped points and left us ahead in Serie A.”

Meanwhile, the horseracing at Doncaster saw Aidan O’Brien’s Jan Brueghel (11/4 joint favourite) won the world’s oldest classic in the Betfred St Leger, with Swaziland-born jockey Sean Levey securing his second classic victory in the process.

Jan Brueghel edged out joint favourite and stablemate Illinois by a neck to give O’Brien his eighth victory in the race.

With Prime Minister Keir Starmer in attendance, Jan Brueghel stayed on the strongest after passing Grosvenor Square at the two-furlong pole alongside Illinois to stretch his unbeaten record to four.

Gill said: “At Doncaster on Saturday, the final classic of the season in The St Leger went the way of Jan Brueghel, 11/4 joint favourite who conquered the other 11/4 joint favourite, Illinois, by a neck.

“With a battle at the head of the market throughout the morning, that result was close enough to level pegging in book, in what was overall a relatively tough Saturday at the festival.”

Betfred fared slightly better on the horseracing front, as Firkins explained: “Fred pushed two big winners in Ireland’s huge weekend of racing – Economics 9/4 (returned 7/4) and Diego Velazquez 2/1 (10/11); plus one at Donny , with old hero Kinross, back to his best – 3/1 (11/4).”