Report: Dutch online market could be worth €1.1bn in 2024
Dutch regulator reveals H2 and Regulus Partners estimates of market growth amid ambition to reach 90% channelisation rate among recreational players
The Dutch online gambling market could be worth €1.1bn (£957m) in 2024, according to a new report published by the Dutch Gambling Authority (KSA).
The estimate, provided by H2 Gambling Capital, considers both the legal and illegal online gambling markets in the Netherlands and includes bonuses.
H2 has said the legal online market in isolation could be worth as much as €757m in 2024.
However, separate estimates provided by consultancy firm Regulus Partners of both the legal and illegal markets are slightly lower at €827m in 2024. EGR understands the disparity in valuations is because the Regulus valuation does not include bonuses.
“The actual size of the future online market is partly dependent on the powers and deployable resources that will be available to the KSA in the area in the coming years including monitoring, enforcement and combating illegality and crime,” said the KSA.
Both estimates are based on 2020 data and assume a go-live date for the country’s Remote Gaming Act of 1 January 2021, a deadline which has since been pushed back to March due to Covid-19.
The KSA also suggested the illegal gambling market in the Netherlands would be far bigger had the prospect of regulation not been on the cards.
In the report, the KSA said it would look to meet the Dutch government’s stated aim of a channelisation rate to licensed operators of 80%, but admitted there was work to do to achieve this aim.
The regulator further suggested a 90% channelisation rate could be possible in respect of recreational players but admitted a 29% tax rate on online gambling could be a determining factor in channelisation rates, adding that 70% was the most likely outcome after a three-year period.
“People who play often spend on average more money on games of chance than recreational players,” the KSA said.
“Regular players are also sensitive to the size of payout percentages and are less guided by whether or not a provider has a (Dutch) licence.
“Achieving the channelling objective in terms of gross game result is therefore relatively more difficult. It is expected that the channelisation target three years after the entry into force of the Koa Act when it comes to the gross game result is about 70%,” the regulator added.
KSA chair Rene Jansen hailed the report as an important building block in establishing effective enforcement against illegal operators prior to the launch of the market in October.
“In addition to the forthcoming handling of applications for an online gaming licence, we are also already mapping out how we will organise the supervision of online providers,” Jansen explained.
“Enforcement of the remaining illegal supply is also receiving full attention, with the KSA aiming to keep the remaining illegal supply as small as possible.
“Knowledge of the market is crucial for good supervision. In the supervision of future licensees, the focus will be on whether they pay sufficient attention to addiction prevention. After all, that is an essential objective of the law: players must be able to rely on a safe and reliable offer,” he added.