KSA confirms Dutch channelisation slump amid soaring black market growth 

The Netherlands Gambling Authority (KSA) has confirmed a four-percentage point drop in the nation’s channelisation rate for H2 2024, as the regulator said the black market is “about the same size” as the legal market.

The regulator published its latest monitoring report, revealing 91% of Dutch players only wager with a legal operator, a fall from H1 2024 when the KSA reported the channelisation rate at 95%. 

However, while that channelisation rate applies to the number of players in the legal market, the KSA estimated that just 50% of total spend remains with licensed operators, indicating the black market’s growing size.

The methods used to determine the spend channelisation changed in February of this year, inspired by the Dutch Lottery.

The new methodology found the rate was “lower than first thought”, noting that spend channelisation for H1 2024 averaged at 58%. 

New rules in the Netherlands that came into effect from October, including a €700 affordability check limit, has driven the rate down to 50%.

In turn, the KSA reported the size of the black market spend to be around €305m for Q4 2024, just €1m smaller than that of the regulated market during the same period. 

The report – which detailed that 5.4% of the entire Dutch adult population gambled with a legal operator during H2 2024 –stated the legal market reported 6% growth over the course of 2024 compared to 2023.

The legal market posted €1.47bn GGR for the full year, up from €1.39bn in 2023; however, in H2 2024, GGR fell 10% – a slump the authority attributed to both Euro 2024 taking place in H1 and stricter regulations enforced by the KSA coming into effect in H2, including deposit limits. 

Online casino games proved to be the dominant vertical in H2, accounting for 75% of the Dutch regulated market’s GGR.

Within the six-month reporting period, there was a slight increase in active accounts, with 1.19 million registered in H2 2024, a marginal rise from the 1.1million in H2 2023. 

For the last quarter of the year, the report noted that the rise in the number of registered accounts could have been due to new regulatory measures permitting players to have multiple accounts. 

Additionally, player losses were found to be on a downward trend in H2, with users aged 24 and over losing an average of €148 per month, decreasing from the average losses of €168 per month in H1.

The number of accounts attributed with ‘extreme’ losses had also fallen. Before October 2024, 73% of the legal market’s revenue came from players who had reported losses of more than €1,000 per month. 

However, the amount of the legal market’s revenue coming from players with ‘extreme’ losses after the new regulations had drastically declined to 23%. 

Prior to 4 October, 4% of all accounts in the regulated market showed losses of more than €1,000 per month. That decreased to 1.2% after the new policy came into effect.

Players aged between 18 and 23 are considered a vulnerable group by the KSA. The report noted in H2 2024, that demographic generated €77m in revenue, which translates as 11% of the market.

Those aged between 18 and 23 spend less money and in turn lose less, with the average monthly loss of €48. This demographic also made up 22% of all player accounts used in the legal sector. 

In terms of problem gamblers, the KSA gave no update on the amount of people treated for gambling-related harm since the 2,456 reported in 2023. 

However, the number of people registering with Cruks, the Netherlands self-exclusion system, has steadily risen by an average of 509 per week to sit at 87,345 total sign-ups by January 2025. 

More than half of registrants are recent, with 56% having been in the Cruks system for no more than six months. 

Earlier this week, KSA chair Michel Groothuizen denied the operator had been “sitting on its hands” in regard to black market growth.