US election betting: Late money comes in for Trump as political wagers skyrocket

The 2020 US presidential election between the incumbent Donald Trump and rival Joe Biden has officially become one of the biggest betting events of all time.

The highest voter turnout for a century is expected as US citizens choose between four more years of 74-year-old Republican Trump or a new reign for the Democrats under the 77-year-old Biden.

The divisive vote has also split bettors, with late money flooding in for Trump despite Biden being the bookies’ favourite since the betting market began and also leading in the polls.

The Betfair Exchange last month revealed more than £200m had already been traded on the event with six days to go, while that figure has now surpassed £306m as we arrive at Election Day.

Over $300m has been bet so far on the @BetfairExchange 2020 US Election market. 49% of that has been for Biden, while 47% of the volume has been for Trump. Read all about it on @Forbes. https://t.co/Z8JBAal7JY

— Sam Rosbottom (@SamRoscoe) October 30, 2020

In fact, more money has been wagered with Betfair on this election than on the Super Bowl, Grand National, 2018 World Cup and Conor McGregor’s high-profile 2017 bout with Floyd Mayweather Jr. combined.

The largest political bet in the history of Europe's @BetfairExchange has been placed.

Bettor bet $1.3 million on Joe Biden to win the election.

Would net $700,000 if he does.

— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) November 2, 2020

Below are some highlights from sports betting companies with their finger on the pulse:

Oddschecker

Oddschecker has provided some scintillating stats this morning. Year-to-date US politics bets are up 150% on the 2016 election, with US politics site traffic rising by 54% on the same period.

The biggest bet placed via oddschecker on Biden came in at £19,500, while the chunkiest wager on Trump reached £6,450.

Of the 10 biggest bets placed on the US election result via oddschecker, only one was for Trump.

Oddschecker spokesperson Callum Wilson said: “America went to sleep knowing Biden was the bookies’ favourite to win the 2020 US election which hasn’t changed, but the gap between Trump and Biden has been severely narrowed overnight.

“Yesterday, Biden’s 2020 US election odds sat at 8/15, implying a 65.2% chance of winning the election. That percentage has now dropped to 61.9% chance with his price drifting to 8/13 in places.

“Trump will likely wake up with a spring in his step as more and more people think he could stay for another term. Trump’s odds on Monday implied he had just a 34.8% chance of winning. However, his current odds of 6/4 imply he’s got 40% chance.

“In 2016, sportsbooks only gave Trump a 20% chance of winning on the day before Election Day.”

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323534663453913093?s=20

Betfred

Betfred spokesperson Alan Firkins said: “There has been tremendous interest among Betfred customers as to the outcome of the US election and plenty of volume.

“We’ve taken a bet of £140,000 from a customer in the South West on Donald Trump at 13/8.”

Flutter Entertainment’s Ross Garvey on LinkedIn

Sporting Index

Sporting Index trading spokesperson Phill Fairclough said: “It’s been an interesting election campaign to say the least, and we’re still expecting a few twists and turns despite Biden’s lead in the polls.

“The trends in this election race aren’t too dissimilar from the 2016 election, and we all know how that panned out.

“We expected a big late move in the betting for Trump to secure a second term and while he’s now 6/4 to win the election in our fixed-odds market, he’s as big as 9/2 in the popular vote betting.

“Perhaps more telling is our Electoral College Vote market, where the money is coming in for Biden. Keeping in mind that candidates require a minimum of 270 votes to be declared the winner, Biden is available at 308-314, which signals that the Democrat could secure a comfortable victory,” he added.

We will be hearing about this election in operator Q4 reports, one way or another. Flutter alone will lose $10m if Trump wins and sounds like similar at GVC

— Brad Allen (@BradAllenNFL) November 3, 2020

DraftKings

DraftKings surveyed 350,000 US citizens across the 50 states as part of its free-to-play US Presidential Pools game and has revealed that only Colorado residents think Biden can derail the Trump train.

When asked “who will win the election?” residents in 49 out of 50 states picked former The Apprentice host Trump.

“Our customers love being involved with big moments,” said DraftKings North America president Matt Kalish. “They love to predict things and most of all they want skin-in-the-game.

“The biggest moment in US politics is the presidential election and we’re seeing tremendous engagement and enthusiasm from the DraftKings community.”

Let's bring this home. pic.twitter.com/tDQ2T0LCbQ

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) November 3, 2020

Smarkets

Sarbjit Bakhshi, head of political markets at Smarkets, said: “With just under 100 million early votes cast at the time of writing, this race could be over before it even begins.

“Smarkets prices give Biden a 63% chance of victory to Trump’s 37% in our $17.7m election-winner market. Although other predictive models suggest this race is much more in Biden’s favour, bettors are considering potential factors such as polling errors, voter suppression, and issues related to the count – meaning Trump may not be out of this race just yet.”

Star Sports

Star Sports political betting analyst William Kedjanyi said: “In line with others, we’re mainly taking Trump money – helped by the fact we’re best price – and pleased to be doing so. We’re also best price on Trump in every single state, and as a consequence of that and the early Trump enthusiasm – with money for them on Ohio & Florida (£5,000) + Nevada, Minnesota (£1,000), we’d expect to take more money on them through lunchtime at least.”

Article featured image by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI,JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images