Unveiling the high-stakes game behind the screens

In the fast-paced world of esports betting, where microseconds make the difference between profit and loss, this high-stakes battle is being waged between punters and the sophisticated algorithms of odds providers such as Oddin.gg, whose trading team is primarily composed of former esports players.

While the combination of insider knowledge and analytical prowess gives Oddin.gg a distinct advantage in this classic cat-and-mouse game, sharp bettors – armed with their own depth of knowledge and intuition – are formidable opponents.

In addition, these adversaries are also an important indicator of multiple factors in setting the correct odds, as we will show later in this article.

“Esports is a young sport where the daily fluctuations in prices can be significant,” explains Adam Čábela, who leads the risk management team at Oddin.gg.

“As a trader, you need to be constantly vigilant, watching the so-called ‘sharp bettors’ and using their insights to fine-tune your prices.”

Sharp bettors, as Čábela describes, are not merely lucky punters. They are seasoned analysts – often former gamers – who possess a deep understanding of the games, the teams and the underlying dynamics of the esports scene.

Their bets, placed well in advance of matches or after/before a certain key aspect of the game, such as pick/ban in multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) type of games, can serve as valuable indicators of where the odds are likely to move.

“We look at where the odds move after a sharp bettor places a wager,” Čábela reveals. “If there’s a consistent pattern of odds shifting in their favour, it’s a strong indication that they have a good read on the situation.

“The max bets in this case work against our favour. A person willing to bet $40, bets $40, expressing an opinion using their wallet. But if you are allowed to bet $200, maybe you are willing to place a $20,000 bet.

“From a single bet, we don’t really know how strong your opinion is. The same person might push multiple bets, work in teams… the sharps are always one step ahead.”

Prokop Simon, quant team leader, says: “Our goal is to find the ‘sharpest price’, the price that most accurately reflects the true probabilities of a match at a certain timestamp. But we also need to consider the specific needs and risk tolerances of our clients.

“We are the odds provider to dozens of clients that significantly differ in their portfolios, bettors’ concentration, geographical presence, and branding reaching from traditional and conservative to high-risk, high reward character. Our odds feed must bring top margins to all of them.”

This delicate balancing act involves a constant interplay between advanced mathematical models, trader expertise and the collective wisdom of the betting market. Oddin.gg’s proprietary algorithms crunch vast amounts of data, analysing everything from team statistics and player performance to historical trends and in-game events.

Combined with thousands of data points flowing from the esport titles during tournaments in real time, this requires a fast, flexible IT infrastructure and legacy stacks.

Simon emphasises: “The operators themselves can estimate what traffic will be brought to their infrastructure during the match, based on historical data, marketing campaigns or predictive tools.

“Given the majority of our clients use our risk management services, we must be ready for whatever traffic our clients will send our way.

“The robustness and flexibility of our solution must withstand a tsunami of traffic. But the IT quality is not 100% of success. Even in the era of AI, we don’t rely solely on algorithms.”

He adds: “Our traders bring a wealth of experience and intuition to the table, allowing us to interpret the data and make informed decisions. The pre-match bets, for example, might seem to be unimportant – as even we claim, esports is a live entertainment business.

“However, if your odds are completely off, you might be totally lost in the dynamic live gameplay, hopelessly chasing witches.”

A human touch

While technology plays a crucial role, the human element remains paramount in esports betting. This is particularly true for complex games such as Dota 2 and League of Legends, where the outcome of a match can hinge on seemingly minor factors like champion selections, item builds and team synergy.

Oddin.gg’s traders are not just number crunchers. They are passionate esports enthusiasts who closely follow the latest trends, analyse player strategies and watch live streams of matches, even if off duty, following the shaping of the current metagame.

This deep understanding allows them to make informed adjustments to the odds as the action unfolds, ensuring their clients have the most accurate and up-to-date feed information available.

“These games are incredibly nuanced,” Čábela explains. “You need to understand the intricacies of the game mechanics, the strengths and weaknesses of each team, and even the psychological factors that can influence player performance.

“The base of our decision are our models. Naturally, with the more traditional titles like Dota 2, we could vastly rely on our, so to say battle-tested, models. However, even traditional games are impacted in a major way by patches.

“Patches, that means game updates, are not only aimed to improve graphics. They can cause a major change in the gameplay that will require re-thinking of competitive gaming strategy (metagame we mentioned already), team tactics, selection of heroes, etc.

“On our side, this means a major impact on our models, and also creates a necessity to never stop learning.”

As esports continues its meteoric rise, the betting industry is poised for even greater growth. Oddin.gg is at the forefront, constantly innovating and pushing the boundaries.

“We envision a future where esports betting is as mainstream as traditional sports betting,” Simon predicts.

“We’re building the infrastructure, the technology, and the expertise to make that vision a reality.”

Oddin.gg is a B2B provider of esports odds feeds, risk management and iframe solutions. The company maximises its partners’ profitability by combining machine learning algorithms with advanced data science. Oddin.gg powers solutions for Betway, Yolo Group, LOOT.BET, Aspire Global, Altenar, Softswiss, and many more sportsbook and platform providers on a global scale.