Oddschecker insights: January’s racing was a “brutal month” for UK&I bookmakers

Oddschecker has reaffirmed what traders at bookmakers in the UK and Ireland already knew, namely, that January was a particularly costly month due to 41% of favourites winning.

In its latest insights piece, published today, 10 February, the odds comparison service described it as a “brutal month” for layers of horseracing on both sides of the Irish Sea.

The 41% favourite win-rate was the highest since February 2024, and almost five percentage points above the long-term monthly average of 35.8%.

Moreover, it was the second-highest favourite win-rate since oddschecker began collecting this kind of data in 2019.

High-profile racing days did most of the damage to operators’ margins, including 28 of 62 races (45%) won by the favourite on New Year’s Day.

Furthermore, five horses at the top of the market in their respective races obliged on Cheltenham Trials Day on 25 January, producing a 71% win-rate.

Over in Ireland, seven out of 15 (47%) favourites lived up to their billing at the Dublin Racing Festival, further denting bookmakers’ revenue.

With the highlight of the jumps season, the Cheltenham Festival, just over four weeks from today, oddschecker said bookmakers would be gearing up for a fierce Q1 battle for market share by way of sign-up offers, extra places and price boosts.

Elsewhere, oddschecker highlighted how high-scoring trends continue in the football, after the 2023-24 Premier League season set a record for goals in a single campaign: 1,246, or 3.28 per match. It even beat the seasons when teams played 42 matches (38 nowadays).

Yet this trend had continued for 2024-25, with matches at Brentford’s Gtech Community Stadium averaging five goals per game, while Nottingham Forest made history by becoming only the second team in Premier League history to record a victory of five goals or more (7-0 at home to Brighton) after conceding at least five (5-0 away at Bournemouth).

Oddschecker also noted that the popular both teams to score (BTTS) is currently at 60%, meaning in 143 of 239 matches both sides have found the back of the net in England’s top-flight.

The affiliate wrote: “The increase from 49% in the 2020-21 season to 60% today highlights not just the added entertainment value, but also the growing competitiveness and unpredictability of the league – in line with the below-par ‘big six’ win-rate for the current campaign.”

However, the surge on goals hasn’t necessarily meant softer margins, oddschecker said.

“While the ever-popular over 2.5 goals and anytime goal-scorer markets remain strong, the growth of the bet builder product has played a key role in maintaining profitability.

“With 54%of oddschecker users adding three or more selections to their bet builders in January alone, it highlights how high-overround markets continue to shape recreational football betting in 2025.”

Finally, January set a new acquisition record for the first month of the year, with new sign-ups surging 91% year on year (YoY). The affiliate said this was the highest YoY rise since Euro 2024.

The so-called ‘big five’ bookmakers recorded a 34% YoY increase in new registrations compared with January 2024.

It was reported that Betfred led the acquisition rankings thanks its ‘Bet £10, Get £50 in Free Bets’ inducement, followed by BetMGM and bet365 in that order.

Meanwhile, sponsorship campaigns contributed to BoyleSports’ 71% month-on-month (MoM) surge in new users, while William Hill’s ‘Bet £10, Get £60’ offer “continues to prove highly attractive”.

Sign-ups with bookmakers outside the top 10 jumped 39% MoM and 121% YoY, which oddschecker said reflected the growing trend of players seeking new accounts.

“With increasing competition, player loyalty is proving more crucial than ever,” the company wrote.

Yesterday, 9 February, oddschecker’s parent, FairPlay Sports Media, published the latest edition of its UK Operator Tracker, with Sky Bet moving marginally ahead of bet365 in Q4 in terms of brand awareness.