Oddschecker insights: February margin the highest since May 2023
Despite high win rate for favourites in horseracing and the Premier League, high-profile draws give the bookies a boost
Oddschecker data has revealed February represented the largest implied industry margin since May 2023 after a difficult January for operators.
The affiliate noted February also had the third-largest implied industry margin since January 2021, despite figures that would be “perceived as traditionally poor sports results in racing and football”.
In fact, 38.3% of all UK and Irish horseraces in February were won by the favourite, which was the largest share since November 2021.
The figure is also well above the long-term average favourite win share of 35.9%.
In the Premier League, 64% of all fixtures saw the favourite come away with all three points, the largest share since December 2022 and above the long-term average of 56%.
Oddschecker noted the positive margin was driven by draws in high-profile matches and a surprise win in the Ascot Chase.
The firm namechecked Manchester City and Chelsea’s 1-1 draw on 17 February when the champions needed a late equaliser from Rodri to avoid defeat, while the League Cup final between Liverpool and City finished 0-0 in 90 minutes.
Meanwhile, in the Ascot Chase, Harry Cobden rode Pic D’Orhy to victory ahead of the 5/4 favourite L’Homme Presse, eventually winning by five-and-a-half lengths.
Sticking with horseracing, and with Cheltenham kicking off next week, Oddschecker also detailed the top picks in the ante-post markets.
Ballyburn, who is evens for the Supreme Novices Chase, had 29% more betslip clicks than his nearest challenger.
The losses of Constitution Hill and Marine Nationale from the showpiece event will have deflated some, although Oddschecker did detail some potential knock-on effects.
The firm said: “Constitution Hill and Marine Nationale’s dramatic exits will reverberate through their respective markets in the coming week.
“Constitution Hill’s procession in last year’s Champion Hurdle, while unlikely to be matched, creates a clear-cut opportunity for last year’s runner up (and Oddschecker’s ninth most-clicked horse this year), State Man.
“The rise of NRNB [no runner, no bet] will see lots of ante-post wagers returned in the coming days, with two of the top four most-clicked horses having been pulled from the festival.”
Elsewhere, February also saw the average registration to first-time deposit percentage land at 61%, with the best performing brand, Virgin Bet, reporting a 86% completion.
Finally, BetMGM had the best performing offer for its ‘bet £10 get £40 in free bets’ promotion ahead of CopyBet and Betfred.