Oddschecker insights: January margin the lowest since 2022 World Cup as favs come to the fore
Wins for the Premier League’s top fix and spike in favourite win-rate in horseracing leaves operators burnt
Oddschecker’s implied industry margin reached its lowest level since December 2022, according to data provided by the firm.
A combination of favourites winning across horseracing and football meant operators struggled in the opening month of 2024.
Oddschecker said the last time its implied industry margin was this low was in December 2022, at the peak of the World Cup, including the 3-3 final between France and Argentina.
The lowest margin month prior to December 2022 was March 2022, when a slew of favourites at the Cheltenham Festival coming home meant the margin sank to a negative.
The horseracing favourite win-rate in the UK and Ireland hit its highest level for more than two years.
January’s win-rate clocked in at 38.3%, the highest proportion of favourite winners since February 2022 and the second-highest figure since the sport returned from its enforced Covid-19 break in June 2020.
Oddschecker said the leap in January had come after several months of “low horseracing favourite win-rates, particularly in August, September and October last year”.
Likewise in the Premier League, the top teams also won more matches than expected.
Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United and Spurs secured wins in 90% of the matches they were favourites for in January.
That figure is a significant increase on the long-term average win-rate for the group of 64%.
Oddschecker said the combination of racing and Premier League results, coupled with headline boosts for tier-one operators, meant January was an “uphill struggle revenue-wise”.
Additionally, customer registration was down 6% compared to January 2023 and down 5% compared to December 2023.
Oddschecker also noted LeoVegas Group’s BetMGM UK had the top acquisition for the first month of the year with its ‘bet £10 get £40 in free bets’ offer.
In other news, oddschecker’s parent company, Oddschecker Global Media, has rebranded to FairPlay Sports Media.
EGR caught up with CEO Stuart Simms last month to discuss the branding shift and why he hopes to secure gains on the back of a ‘BetTech’ strategy.