Industry predictions for 2025: Grey market set to shrink and influencers on the wane

Steven Salz, Rivalry CEO

Crypto betting brands – the new household names among the next generation

Some of the fastest growing and most popular online betting brands among the next generation of consumers are not the big household names that many of us working in the industry grew up with. 

Crypto native operators, while relatively new entrants, are increasingly emerging as the most popular betting destination for this customer segment – and for good reason.

As a payment channel, crypto offers a product that is faster, global and objectively better in almost every way – a compelling value proposition for online gambling customers, and even more so for the 35-and-under segment that makes up 57% of crypto users, according to research by José Campino from the Nova School of Business and Economics in Portugal and Shiwen Yang from the Instituto Universitário de Lisboa.

In addition, on the product side, the loyalty mechanics, exclusive casino content and site-wide gamification level up crypto platforms into a CX bracket that meets this audience’s expectations for consumer tech.

You also see a marketing mix clearly optimised for digitally native consumers; existing almost exclusively on digital channels, often leaning into streaming and viral content versus traditional mass media channels. 

Everything feels like it’s tailored for this emerging customer. We expect this trend will accelerate in the coming years.

Marketing strategies will shift away from influencers

The influencer marketing strategies which once represented a dominant marketing channel among Millennials and Gen Z will become a much less fruitful tactic for online gambling brands moving forward.

Rivalry was early to incorporate this strategy into its marketing mix, but the return on this approach is receding as more operators crowd the playing field and customers become increasingly jaded to this content. 

The oversaturation of creator-driven gambling content has reached a tipping point and fatigue is setting in among this audience – the novelty has nearly completely worn off.

The reality is that the cost relative to the impact is simply not what it used to be and we expect influencer deals will start to wind down and make up a smaller piece of operators’ media spend moving forward. 

Conversely, performance marketing and business intelligence will start to resurface as a higher ROI channel to allocate resources toward.

Product starts to feel more like entertainment

You will start to see the online betting product move more in the direction of entertainment, be it greater gamification, higher volatility offerings or simply elevating the UX and design. 

Same game parlays have been an interesting case study on this, offering a higher potential payout and, as a result, higher entertainment value for the user.

Despite the odds being stacked against the user, it continues to prove itself as one of the most popular bets on the board – not to mention that it is a much higher margin product for operators. 

The next wave of consumers has very high expectations for entertainment, and the brands that can deliver that experience in their products will be best positioned to acquire and retain those users.

Products that straddle the line between gambling, entertainment and gaming will be poised to make the biggest impact within an offering and among its users.

Kirsty Caldwell, Betsmart Consulting CEO and founder

Decrease of grey markets may reduce the value of ‘Rest of the World’-type licences

Over the past few years, we’ve seen more countries move to regulate gambling, forcing operators to apply for local licences rather than relying on increasingly expensive Rest of the World (RoW) licences to trade with international populations.

Hot on the heels of the United Arab Emirates, Brazil will launch its regulated sector in January and has been inundated with applications. New Zealand is looking to regulate online casino in 2026.

And Finland is planning a transition from a monopoly to a modern licensing system in the same timeframe. These are just a few examples of the same trend which is happening worldwide.

As the number of grey markets continues to decline, it stands to reason that the value of traditional RoW licences will decrease and I predict we’ll start to see a reduction of the number of operators applying for licences in jurisdictions such as Malta.

A recent rise in smaller, cheaper and easier-to-maintain RoW licence options, such as Tobique, is also likely to compound this problem.

We’ll see expanded regulation and subsequent supervision of currently unregulated products

Although there hasn’t been much movement this year, and it wasn’t covered in the Gambling Act review white paper, the loot box argument rumbles on.

The new UK government recently published research outlining its concerns and the story across Europe shows a similar trend, with Belgium outlawing the sale of loot boxes and other countries such as the Netherlands and Austria attempting to follow suit.

This year, we’ve also seen a series of Advertising Standards Authority cases being upheld against free-to-play games which have been deemed as misleading, due to the implication that financial gain can be made by playing them.

Lastly, in the UK white paper, there was a reference to cracking down on raffles which charge for entry, but which get around the need for a licence by providing a free-to-play route. I’m not sure how quickly this is going to evolve, but I predict we will continue to see increased focus on products which are akin to gambling but which are not yet regulated. The net is tightening.

Further consolidation of the UK casino sector

The UK casino sector has been waiting patiently for movement on the positive changes it was promised via the white paper, which in theory should help to alleviate commercial pressure which has been mounting since before the pandemic.

While the proposed measures were welcomed, many land-based experts considered the measures to be ‘too little, too late’. And as we’ve now waited nearly two years since the white paper publication – with no tangible, land-based focused changes being implemented – small casino groups are really feeling the pinch.

I’m aware of sales of several casinos in the past six months and more than one closure. This is something I sadly predict we’ll see more of in 2025.