Industry predictions for 2023: US sports betting's image takes a hit and a tough year for challenger brands

Jeevan Jeyaratnam, COO of Abelson Odds  

FIFA’s technological approaches could disrupt the current soccer data collection status quo   

Back in 2021, FIFA announced plans to test a new game analytics tool at the Arab Cup, the product of that successful testing is what we saw overlayed on screen at the 2022 Qatar World Cup. The idea is to help develop and improve the game at a national level. The metrics debuting at Qatar included ‘opposition line breaks’, ‘pressure on ball carrier’ and ‘turnovers created by pressures’.  

If FIFA can promote this ‘language’ well enough to other federations and leagues, there’s a chance it will impact how soccer data is collected for media and betting purposes. FIFA’s other major technological advance came via its live-ball tracking system, a project that has been six-years in the making. Betting on the hardest shot and longest dribble could be possible thanks to this advancement.  

This kind of exclusive data is exactly what the game’s power players will be looking to use as leverage for future data sales.  The impact of this data on an industry keen to seek new, increasingly granular ways to entice punters could be disruptive, but also rewarding to early adopters.  

Sports betting’s image takes a big hit in the US 

The halcyon days of 2018 and unlimited stock market valuations for US sportsbooks now seems a long time ago. The current economic environment is not favourable to raising capital, set that against the market share enjoyed by the top few operators, and it’s no wonder there has been a raft of sportsbook withdrawals from the market in 2022.  

It also appears that the tide is turning in regards to the general acceptance of sports betting. The industry, in my opinion, only has itself to blame for appearing completely tone-deaf when pushing outrageous sign-up bonuses, coupled with unrelenting marketing, into what is a nascent market, composed of adults with little to no prior experience of sports betting.  

Concurrently, there has been an increasing number of anti-gambling stories from prominent US media like Bloomberg, Forbes and The New York Times. We are even seeing diatribe from the New York Senate, where there is a bill in motion looking to curb what Senator Pete Harckham is calling, “predatory sportsbook bonuses in mobile sports betting”.  

Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal’s open letter, calling for the termination of sportsbooks ties with college athletic departments, is a further sign of growing vitriol towards US sports betting. 

Power shift in Asia 

Macau has and continues to suffer from its tether to mainland China, where Covid lockdowns and harsh restrictions on junket operations have inflicted painful wounds upon an economy heavily reliant on its gaming sector. Singapore has quickly asserted itself as the destination of choice for VIP gaming, benefitting from Macau’s woes, despite a long-term duopoly in place.  

With draconian measures being passed into law in Indonesia, and the continued slow pace of the integrated resorts (IR) projects in Japan, the opportunities for gambling in the region seem to be playing into the hands of those willing to accommodate such activities. 

The Philippines, like Singapore, is another likely beneficiary of the fallout, despite announcing a crackdown on non-licensed offshore operations (POGOs) in September. Should the regulator, Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp (PAGCOR), decide to remove itself from operating casinos and concentrate solely on the regulation aspect of its responsibilities, thus avoiding the current conflict of interest between regulation and operation, then the opportunities for the country to cash in are substantial. 

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Fintan Costello, managing director at BonusFinder  

A tough year for tier-two and tier-three operators   

The industry has experienced record growth in the last few years with digital revenues going through the roof during lockdowns, however, those days are now behind us. The global economy is suffering, prices are going through the roof and spend is declining.  

This will also mean a less favourable funding environment, and for those reasons, I can see certain small-to-medium online gambling brands sadly going bust next year. For those looking to sell, valuations will likely come down to more realistic levels and certain poor performers could be shaken out, leaving more established names to take the reins when calmer waters appear.  

Capital will also inevitably dry up with valuations and multiples coming down but there will always be some M&A in a fast-moving tech-reliant sector such as ours. However, this environment may also represent an opportunity for certain risk-averse, cash-rich VCs and investors to buy (into) companies, at more reasonable price points. 

Ohio and Ontario – the best new sportsbook states to regulate 

Figures published earlier this month from the BonusFinder.com Bonus Index revealed that Ohio will rocket to the top of the rankings as the leading sportsbook-only state in the US. The Buckeye State will move into pole position for betting consumers in 2023 when it launches on 1 January next year. Ohio will see one of the largest number of pre-approved licensees (25, second only to Colorado), six professional sports teams across the MLB, NBA, NHL and the NFL, plus one of the country’s most followed college football teams. And there are 12 million sports-obsessed fans.  

These factors will see the state leapfrog its biggest rivals including New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Michigan, which have been pushed out of the top three, with the Ohio offerings going live just one month before the NFL’s showpiece, the 57th Super Bowl in February. The timing could not be better!  

We’re also seeing a huge appetite from Ohioans, who are avid sports fans. A recent BonusFinder.com survey of 1,001 Ohioans shows just how much passion there is for sports and betting, with close to 20% saying their partner supporting the same team as them is more important than their political beliefs.

In other big news, Ontario will become the best state in North America both for consumers and multi-product brands. It may have taken a year longer than any of us predicted but we predict that the Canadian province will realise its full potential with more brands, more products and more rewards for players than anywhere else across the continent. 

Indiana to legalise online casino for consumer protection, not tax revenue reasons 

If you’re looking for another 2023 future US success story then Indiana could well be it, when, it’s hoped, it becomes the seventh US state to regulate online casino. Even more interesting is the rationale behind its decision to head down this path.  

You would think, like most states, the main reason would be for tax purposes, but no, its finances are healthier than the petals on a Peony (fact: its state flower) with a whopping $6bn surplus. Instead, the case will likely centre on modernising and bolstering the state’s existing casino industry and providing robust consumer protections.  

As a business that prides itself on offering our customers the ability to ‘Play with More’ this is music to our ears and, should it be successful, will resonate across the country with both the potential to rightly send player protection to the top of the priority list and propel others to look to add casino to their rosters,  which would ironically generate even more tax revenues. A recent study estimates the Indiana online gambling market at $724m at maturity, with a tax revenue potential of nearly $150m. Not to be sniffed at, but the Peony’s definitely are!