Drawing the lines: the impact of VAR on bookmakers' in-play strategies

The introduction of the video assistant referee (VAR) in football has caused controversy ever since it was thrust on the game in 2016. 

Leagues in Australia and the US soon officially adopted the technology, with the subsequent worldwide roll-out ensuring that controversial decisions go viral on social channels within seconds, with iconic moments reversed long after the original celebrations have died down. 

While its sporting impact is obvious, VAR is also inevitably having an influence on betting markets and trading desks. In an ideal world, for sportsbooks, markets remain up for as long as possible. 

The more uptime equals the more bets placed – at the correct price. Of course, the reverse can also be true, whereby sportsbooks take on too much risk by not suspending long enough during VAR checks or other key, game-changing moments during the match.

Bettormetrics recently performed an in-depth analysis of VAR goal/no goal decisions across Europe’s top five leagues in the UK, Spain, Germany, France, and Italy for the 2023-24 season. It examined the suspension duration across the leagues, and performance comparisons of a variety of bookmakers: bet365, Tipico, Sky Bet, Unibet, SBOBET and Marathonbet.

Across a total of 1,535 matches, the average VAR suspension following a goal being checked was 111 seconds, with this period crucially coming at traditionally volatile betting periods for in-play bettors looking to capitalise on vital moments. 

Interestingly, the amount of time for a VAR check increased during the season, from an average 84 seconds in September 2023 to 134 seconds in February, suggesting that VAR checks could continue to get longer, as the technology further impacts the game:

When it comes to VAR checks, betting market suspensions are obviously necessary. However, there is a significant difference in approach from the bookmakers analysed, with a variation of market suspension between 45% and 87% of the duration of the VAR check.

This leads to suspensions of more than a minute on average for several brands, with Sky Bet and Unibet having notably longer suspensions than Tipico and bet365:

However, once the check is complete, some books take a significant time to unsuspend markets, potentially losing millions in wagers due to downtime. SBOBET is notably the longest of the six operators to stay suspended, while bet365, renowned for its in-play offering, is the shortest, going live on average 15 seconds after a check is completed:

With the check of goal or no goal, operators face a binary choice – to trade during the check as if the goal has been scored, or if it hasn’t. Bettormetrics’ research uncovered a notable split in this approach, with two of the analysed brands acting as though the goal had been scored, rather than the converse. 

Tipico traded as though 55 goals were scored, compared to just eight by Unibet. This approach can lead to a poor customer experience should the opposing decision be made, potentially leading to bets being voided, and ultimately disgruntled customers. 

Furthermore, it may affect profitability if the wrong price, and too much value, is offered to customers while checks are ongoing or erroneous decisions are made:

Across football, the widespread usage of VAR is only increasing, and it will become a more central point of a trading team’s strategic approach. With a variance in methodology, from prolonged suspensions to remaining live as long as possible, we can see that bookmakers use different styles to deal with the uncertainty of a VAR check. 

However, long suspension times, incorrect market prices and prolonged downtimes will all have a negative effect on both customer satisfaction and revenue, so creating a strategy that maximises betting time will offer a competitive advantage for bookmakers. 

With the growing trend towards micro betting, and the inevitability of more and more in-play betting markets, striking the right balance between accepting bets and managing risk is likely to be a top priority. 

Sabin Brooks is chief revenue officer at Bettormetrics, an innovative AI data company providing competitive trading intelligence and insight to the sports betting industry.

An industry veteran with over 20 years’ experience in the betting and gaming industry, he has held senior roles with Sky Sports, Party Gaming, King.com and Caesars Interactive, as well as launching and selling a mobile affiliate business to Gambling.com Group and now leading his own consultancy business.