Eilers & Krejcik Gaming expects Americans to bet $1.5bn legally on Super Bowl
Analyst firm also forecasts Nevada to once again generate the highest handle, as in-play betting share dips for NFL’s showpiece game compared to regular season
Americans are expected to wager $1.5bn with licensed operators in 34 commercial sports betting states on this year’s Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs, according to Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG).
As shared by EKG managing partner Chris Krafcik on LinkedIn, the boutique analyst firm has ramped up its expectations for the National Football League’s (NFL) showpiece game, set to be hosted in New Orleans, against the 2024 game.
In fact, the group has put a 20% increase on this year’s total handle against 2024, when the team at EKG estimated $1.25bn would be legally wagered.
Krafcik said: “The increase attempts to account for factors including record TV viewership trends and the ‘Taylor Swift’ effect.”
Swift, the 14-time GRAMMY winner, is dating Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Her appearances at games have spiked huge amounts of interest from traditional, non-NFL fans.
However, the $1.5bn topline estimate only includes multi-operator states, with the likes of Florida, North Dakota and Washington not included in the projections.
EKG said that Florida, which is served by the Hard Rock Bet monopoly, could “meaningfully increase our $1.5bn estimate if included”.
The analyst firm added that previous estimations for Super Bowls have been conservative, and that totals do not include the illegal market.
Philadelphia is one of the larger legalised US sports betting states, while Missouri, where the Chiefs are based out of, will not have online sports betting live in time for the game.
Regulators in the Show-Me State have said a mid to late summer launch for the vertical is expected after voters approved a proposal at the election in November.
In terms of geographical spread, Nevada is expected to retain its leading share of total betting handle with 12.8% of the market, with EKG noting the share was “tourism-driven” in nature.
New York is pegged to have the second-largest share at 10.7%, with New Jersey sitting in third at 10%. Illinois, in fourth, is some way back from the leading trio with 6.8%.
In terms of hard figures, Nevada’s Super Bowl handle is expected to be $193m, with New York on $161.6m and New Jersey on $150.1m.
Overall, Super Bowl bets are forecast to account for almost 1% of the US sports betting industry’s total annual handle, with the event representing 11.2% of February handle alone.
In terms of the type of bets, EKG has estimated that between 15% and 20% of total bets will be placed in-play.
The firm said this skews lower than industry averages, which, as per Genius Sports, can sit around 30% for a standard NFL game.
“However, the Super Bowl skews lower thanks to the high number of recreational customers who favour pre-match betting, the vast amount of pre-game props and the two-week build up to the game,” EKG added.
Additionally, between 20% and 25% of all handle will be placed via bet builders, or same game parlays as it’s known in the US.
The Chiefs are odds-on favourites (4/5) to win their third Vince Lombardi Trophy in a row. The Eagles are currently trading at 21/20.