US presidential election betting heats up as Americans head to the polls

More than £189m has been matched on the Betfair Exchange’s political betting market for the US presidential election winner as Americans cast their votes today, 5 November.

Former President Donald Trump is trading as the favourite versus vice-president Kamala Harris on the Flutter-owned platform, in what is one of the tightest election races in history, according to the polls.

Trump can currently be backed at 1.63 (8/13) compared to Harris at 2.58 (13/5), giving him around a 61% likelihood of stepping into the White House in January.

He had drifted to 1.8 (4/5) at the weekend following polling showing the Republicans might not do so well in Iowa, although the money later came for Trump and his odds contracted. The lowest price he has been matched at throughout the campaign is 1.41 (2/5).  

So far, the total matched is down against the runup to the 2020 US presidential election between Trump and Joe Biden of £480m, with £131m matched in the final 24 hours.

However, legal battles rumbled on for weeks, with Trump refusing to accept the outcome, and in the end a staggering £2bn was traded on the election by the time Betfair closed the market.

 Meanwhile, Matchbook Exchange has seen £16.8m matched on the market and Smarkets is sitting at £9.7m.

 In what has been a tumultuous campaign, with the incumbent Joe Biden stepping out of the running after pressure from fellow Democrats, polling has barely been able to separate Trump and Harris.

The New York Times national average poll as of today has Harris on 49% and Trump on 48%, with the Republican candidate having closed the gap since October after losing the lead in August.

The upshot of that has seen many Americans point to betting markets as the potential definitive indicator of the national mood.

Election betting in the US has been a hot topic this year, with Polymarket coming into the public consciousness, with more than $3bn reportedly traded on the crypto platform, though this has been called into question.

As per Fortune, some crypto research firms have identified wash trading on the Polymarket platform, calling into question the legitimacy of the total matched figure.

A French high roller, who is reported to have more than 40% of the contracts for Trump to win the popular vote, has made headlines, while Bloomberg reported Polymarket has paid influencers more than $50,000 to promote the platform.

Kalshi also made headlines in its battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a US district court gave it the green light to offer election contracts at the start of October. Since then, more than $234m has been traded on who will win the presidential election.

However, Liberty Vittert, a professor of data science at Washington University in St Louis, said using betting markets as a poll was a “load of hooey”.

Writing for The Hill, Vittert said: “You have to understand what drives these betting markets – the bettors. They are betting on nothing more substantial than the ‘vibes’ that once made Harris’ victory seem inevitable earlier this summer.

“The groups that are putting hundreds of millions in bets behind Trump, which in turn is pushing the markets toward his win, are using their own models that really don’t rely that much on polling, but rather the way social media is treating the candidates.

“They track things like comments, engagement around posts, and reach, especially in battleground states. But there’s a problem with these types of social media vibes – someone controls them.”

Last week, Robinhood also joined the party with the launch of its US election contracts, with CEO Vladimir Tenev claiming the product was launched in less than 30 days from conception.

Posting on X yesterday, 4 November, Tenev said more than 100 million contracts have been traded in less than a week since the product’s launch.

The operator view:

Betfair’s Sam Rosbottom

“The US election is here and punters have been heavily backing Donald Trump to win. In fact, the overwhelming majority of money we have taken on the market has been for him, a total of £125m has been staked on ‘the Don’.

“While his odds drifted slightly at the weekend, the odds have swung in his favour again and he is now the clear favourite to win at 8/13, while Kamala Harris is 6/4.

“The vice-president will have to overcome the odds to win the election, something that has only been done once in Betfair Exchange history. If she was to win, she would be replicating her competitor, Donald Trump, who beat the odds to win the election in 2016.

“Looking at the swing state markets, Trump is the favourite in five of the seven that will no doubt determine the outcome of this election. The punters fancy him to win Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, which most commentators believe will be the key with its 19 electoral college votes.

“As the polls open, a whopping £189m has been wagered on the outcome of this election in total so far, but we’re just getting started. As voting closes and the results start to trickle in, we’re expecting even more money to come in on the market and the odds to move further, one way or the other.

“Four years ago, a staggering £130m was bet in the 24 hours before the polls closed in the US, and we’re bracing ourselves for a bumper night tonight as this unprecedented race to the White House comes to a crescendo.”

Bet365’s Steve Freeth

“In 2016 we were also sitting pretty before Donald Trump came with a wet sail to win, leaving us out of pocket by over £4m. That liability still gets mentioned in the office to this day, with some thinking he just couldn’t win.

“Kamala Harris was as big as 66/1 in June while Trump’s biggest price was 8/1 back in 2021, but we’re seeing great two-way trade now in what’s an extremely busy betting heat.

“He can certainly win again but with the odds dramatically shorter, we’ll be hoping for a better book when the dust settles this time around.”

Kindred Group’s Ali Gill

“It’s going to be a long election night, and who knows how long we will have to wait before a winner emerges from this tight race. Kamala Harris was previously as big as 7/4 on 30 October, but she is now down to 7/5, potentially making a late charge just at the right time, although Trump remains strong favourite, in the betting at least, at 3/5.

“Globally, Trump has been the slightly more popular candidate with our players in terms of both bet numbers and stakes overall, but both have had their time, September data showing Harris markedly stronger with punters at around 70% of activity.

“Interestingly, UK customers have it the other way round, with Harris the more popular candidate there. Either way, this election looks almost too close to call confidently.”

Betfred’s Alan Firkins

“While turnover has been heading in recent days towards the one million mark in the Trump/Harris clash for the keys to the White House across the pond.

“Most commentators are reluctant to be definitive about the likely outcome, which is dramatically perched on the proverbial knife edge.”

What else is going on?

And while bettors will be hoping their pick comes out on top in the race, voters in Missouri will have a direct impact on the proliferation of online sports betting in the US.

The Sports Betting Initiative (2024), otherwise known as Amendment 2, is on the ballot in the Show-Me State, and should Missourians approve the measure, online sports betting will go live.

DraftKings and FanDuel have funnelled millions of dollars into a campaign backing the legislation, which has also seen the state’s NFL and MLB franchises providing their support.

However, Caesars, one of the state’s existing land-based casino operators, has funded an anti-sports betting group.

Elsewhere, Elon Musk’s $1m-a-day giveaway to swing state voters will be allowed to proceed after a Pennsylvania judge ruled it wasn’t an “illegal lottery” as alleged by Philadelphia’s top prosecutor.

Musk had been handing out the daily prize via his America PAC. His lawyers argued the winners were not selected at random but instead chosen as spokespeople.

The judge’s ruling came despite Musk claiming $1m would be handed out at random to voters in swing states that signed his political petition.