Eilers & Krejcik Gaming expects Americans to bet $1.25bn legally on Super Bowl
Analyst company predicts Nevada – where Super Bowl LVIII will be played – to edge out New York for the state to generate the highest handle
Americans are set to wager an estimated $1.25bn (£1bn) with licensed operators on Super Bowl LVIII between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers next Sunday, 11 February, according to Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG).
With the NFL’s showpiece game taking place at the Allegiant Stadium, the first time Las Vegas and Nevada has hosted the Super Bowl, the boutique analyst firm forecasts that Nevada will come out top for statewide handle with around $160m staked.
This equates to approximately 13% of what EKG expects to be bet nationally with legal sportsbooks, just ahead of New York – the country’s fourth most populous state – with $155.1m (12.4%) in handle.
New Jersey (9.6%), Pennsylvania (7.4%) and Illinois (7.3%) complete the top five, while Wyoming (0.1%), Montana (0.1%) South Dakota (0.0%) are projected to generate the least handle.
For this year’s Super Bowl there will be 38 states plus Washington DC with live and legal sports betting, while 30 US jurisdictions offer mobile wagering options.
It means more than 175 million adults have access to legal betting in their home state, with states like Florida, Massachusetts and Kentucky going live with online betting since last year’s Super Bowl.
However, the states where both teams play their home games – California and Missouri – don’t have legal and regulated sports betting, which is bound to dent betting interest on the game to some extent.
It will still be the largest betting event of the year in the US, though, accounting for almost 1% of the industry’s total handle for 2024, suggests EKG.
That said, EKG noted how Super Bowl is “mainly an opportunity to acquire casual customers who can be cross-sold or reactivated next NFL season”.
The analyst company also estimates that 10% to 15% of Super Bowl online handle will be bet in-play, albeit noting that this is below broader industry averages.
For example, FanDuel has revealed previously that 44% of its handle comes from in-play, yet EKG pointed out that in-play football skews lower than other US sports.
“Super Bowl skews even lower still due to the high number of recreational customers who overwhelmingly favour pre-match betting,” EKG highlighted.
Finally, EKG put the share of online Super Bowl handle from same game parlays (SGPs) at between 20% and 25%.
“We think the number will be even higher at FanDuel and a tick below that at DraftKings, since both companies, per reported data in Illinois, over-index on parlays,” the firm said.
“We said in our recent SGP flash note that ~50% of revenue on NFL Championship Sunday came via SGP, though hold and revenue can vary wildly in a given weekend.”
The 49ers are priced up as odds-on favourites to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Las Vegas and win their sixth Super Bowl.