How will the five-sub rule impact player-specific betting markets?

Despite a positive start to the first Covid-era Revierderby between Schalke and Borussia Dortmund, Schalke found themselves two goals down by half-time at a spectator-free Signal Iduna Park. Thanks to a new edict from the International Football Association Board (IFAB), leagues restarting post-sports shutdown have been handed the opportunity to make five substitutions per team, per game.

For Schalke manager David Wagner, this enabled him to make a bold double substitution during the interval, while retaining the opportunity to change a further three players in the second half. Unfortunately for the Schalke, none of the five replacement players proved productive enough to prevent a resounding defeat but, more significantly, the half-time changes were two of seven made at the interval across the nine-fixture gameweek. The previous full round saw just three half-time changes. So why the half-time increase and why is it relevant to sports betting companies?

In a bid to avoid time-wasting, the new rule insists that the game may only be stopped a maximum of three times by each side, meaning half-time now becomes a free hit where managers can make changes at the break for free, allowing them to retain flexibility over further substitutes during the second half. IFAB introduced the rule to help teams cope with busier schedules and reduced player fitness levels. It is yet to be proven if this change will positively or negatively affect teams, there are arguments to be made that the ability to change 50% of the outfield players will disrupt rhythm and could lead to a levelling of markets like ‘most goals occurring in the second half’. The rule change, while appearing to aid teams to overcome player fatigue and injuries, actually benefits the richer clubs, who also tend to possess bigger and better-quality squads.

Double change:

@rabbi_matondo & Burgi
@RamanBenito & @jctodibo

46' | #BVBS04 2-0 | #S04 pic.twitter.com/Ygzu2fuLXu

— FC Schalke 04 (@s04_en) May 16, 2020

One key change for bookmakers to consider is the impact that an increased number of participants in a match has on a player’s likely minutes. Traditionally, with one-way markets de rigour, the concept of player minutes and the impact on a player’s individual stat-based markets has been largely bypassed. The change to five subs builds momentum for a wholesale change to that policy. On average, with more changes allowed in a match, a player’s expected minutes are reduced. The impact of a smaller expected minutes quote for a particular player would be reflected in bigger prices about a whole swathe of derivatives, from goals to passes.

At Abelson Odds, the team has been quick to make changes to player minutes expectations, meaning that clients can expect to see more competitive pricing across a number of affected derivative markets. The new rules, allied to a lax approach to player minutes, have potential to shine a spotlight on uncompetitive pricing that will eventually lead to customer antipathy and revenue erosion. While using a global average can be dangerous, the ability to set a reduced figure in those leagues utilising the new law allows a chance to offer a very compelling product. Tweaking individual players’ expected minutes within this framework goes a long way to helping move player derivative pricing to the next level of accuracy. The premise is a belief that in time two-way pricing for derivatives will, rightly, become the norm. Carefully considering player minute expectations is the first step towards the evolution of a better product. Perhaps Covid-19 will end up expediting the development of more precise two-way player proposition betting.

It remains to be seen if IFAB will introduce this law as a permanent member of the “rules of the game”, but given the uptake across major leagues, including the English Premier League, it has a chance. Although the five-sub rule hasn’t yet helped David Wagner’s woeful Schalke side, it is hoped that it will aid the evolution of player pricing, such a key component of the wider bet builder revolution.

Jeevan Jeyaratnam is a senior trader and compiler at player pricing firm Abelson Odds.